Ethiopia troops fight Al Shabaab in Bay region

Somalia Sep. 8, 2013 (Garowe Online) –Somali Federal Government troops backed by Ethiopians reportedly fought a fierce battle with Al Shabaab militants in Qansah-Omane vicinity of Bay region on Saturday afternoon, Garowe Online reports. Local sources say that the fighting lasted for an hour with witnesses reported that Al Shabaab fighters fled Qansah-Omane. Mohamed Aro As, the mayor of neighbouring Bay regional district of Bardaale said by telephone from an area close to the battlefield according to him, “We disbanded them [Al Shabaab] forcefully ,also we seized ammunition and weapons”. On their side, Al Shabaab officials didn’t provide details to Somali media. Qansah-Omane 24 KMs away from Baidoa, the administrative capital of Bay region had been one of few places remaining under the control of Al Shabaab. Somali government forces with the support of AMISOM troops secured Baidoa in February 2012. In a pullout plan, Ethiopian troops vacated Bakool regional capital of Huddur which was quickly seized by Al Shabaab militants in March 2013 and in August, similar developments took place in Baidoa but Al Shabaab was unable to retake Baidoa due to the presence of AMISOM forces who were immediately located at Baidoa military bases including Hasey factory. Ethiopian troops intervened southern Somalia in Dec-2006 and withdrew by Jan, 2009 but returned to Gedo, Hiraan, Bay, Galgaduud and Bakool border regions in early 2012 in support of Somali government’s stabilization operations.

Destabilization fears over Somalia's first oil deal - UPI.com

There are growing concerns that a groundbreaking oil exploration contract between the Western-backed transitional government of war-torn Somalia and a British-registered company could further destabilize the East African country.

East Africa is experiencing a major oil and natural gas boom that will transform the economies of a half dozen states on Africa's Indian Ocean coast, so the prospects of striking oil in Somalia are rated highly.

But, as U.N. investigators warned this year, the worry is that oil exploration across the shattered state, torn by clan wars and Islamist insurgency since 1991, risks "exacerbating clan divisions and therefore threaten peace and security."

"Oil companies should cease and desist negotiations with Somali authorities," the U.N. Monitoring Group cautioned the U.N. Security Council in July.

Soma Oil and Gas Exploration, headed by Lord Michael Howard, a former leader of Britain's ruling Conservative Party, signed Somalia's first deal with an international oil company, albeit an untested one, Aug. 6. The agreement gives Soma, formed in July, the right to apply for as many as 12 oil blocks in an area the Financial Times says oil majors consider "one of the final frontiers for the commodity."

Soma is expected shortly to launch a seismic survey of onshore and offshore locations.

The signing in Mogadishu, Somalia's war-scarred capital, took place as the country appears headed for a new round of violence, as the Islamist al-Shabaab organization, with links with al-Qaida, was showing signs of reviving a long-running insurgency after a series of military setbacks in 2011-2012.

It's not clear yet why the government of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, installed only a few months ago with Western and United Nations backing, went ahead with the exploration deal since it had earlier voiced fears that the country was too fragile to risk an oil race.

But the government, which many observers suspect will turn out to be as corrupt as previous Somali administrations since 2006, appears to have been persuaded to change tack.

Abdirizak Omar Mohamed, Somalia's minister for natural resources, told the Financial Times Lord Howard's status and high profile -- he was Britain's home secretary, or interior minister, in 1993-97 and leader of the Conservatives in 2003-05 -- had a lot to do with the Mogadishu government's switch.

Howard argued allowing oil exploration would increase stability by boosting state revenue for a government that's totally dependent on foreign handouts.

"We realized we had to take a different approach," Abdirizak said.

The British have been pushing for oil exploration for some time, along with Turkey, Norway, Qatar and others seeking to drill in Somalia and its waters in the Indian Ocean.

London has succeeded in edging out key competitors like Norway, while prospects in Somalia grew as major strikes have been made further south in the past few years -- mostly offshore, mainly off Mozambique and Tanzania -- in geological strata that appear to extend along the whole Indian Ocean coastline.

The Soma deal has made waves in the oil industry, which had expected a public licensing round for the oil blocks.

Some majors, like Anglo-Dutch Shell and France's Total -- which had signed up for blocks during the 1980s but never proceeded with them because Somalia collapsed into perpetual warfare following the ouster of dictator Mohammed Siad Barre in 1991 -- have put them on ice until "conditions allow."

Some oil has been found in the breakaway semi-autonomous regions of Somaliland and Puntland in northern Somalia. This has encouraged expectations that strikes can be made in other regions, and possibly in neighboring Ethiopia as well.

Somaliland and Puntland have largely escaped the violence that has torn Somalia apart, but the dozen or so oil companies drilling there have to be protected by militias or private forces.

In some cases, exploration blocks awarded by the two regions overlap, as with Norway's DNO and the Canadian-listed Africa Oil Corp.

"Potentially, it means that exploration and operations in these blocks, conducted by both DNO and Africa Oil under the protection of regional security forces, allied militia or private forces, could generate new conflict between Somaliland and Puntland," the U.N. report warned. "It is alarming that regional security forces and armed groups may clash to protect and further Western-backed oil companies' interests."

Read more: http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2013/09/06/Destabilization-fears-over-Somalias-first-oil-deal/UPI-52501378487185/#ixzz2eIg7PSvz

Somali president escapes unhurt from militant ambush - tidewaterreview.com

Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud addresses a news conference at the African Union Headquarters in Addis Ababa (Stringer . Reuters, / September 3, 2013)

• Reuters

MOGADISHU (Reuters) - Somalia's president escaped unhurt from an ambush on his military-escorted motorcade on Tuesday that al Qaeda-linked militants said they carried out.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was approaching the port town of Marka, south of the capital Mogadishu, when al Shabaab rebels said they fired rocket-propelled grenades at the convoy.

Local police commander Abdikadir Mohamed confirmed the attack and said the president arrived safely at Marka, 90 km from the capital. There was no immediate comment from the president's office.

The attack underscores the apparent ease with which Islamist al Shabaab rebels can infiltrate areas under the control of Somali government forces and African peacekeepers and strike at the heart of government.

"The president narrowly escaped. We are waiting for his return," Sheikh Abdiasis Abu Musab, al Shabaab's spokesman for military operations, told Reuters.

The rebels said they killed several soldiers and destroyed two armored vehicles from the motorcade that was under escort by African Union and government troops.

The militants abandoned Marka and other urban redoubts last year under military pressure from advancing forces loyal to Mogadishu.

(Reporting by Abdalle Ahmed; Editing by Richard Lough and Alison Williams)

- See more at: http://www.tidewaterreview.com/news/national-world-news/sns-rt-us-somalia-president-20130903,0,5939683.story#sthash.34oynKjZ.dpuf

Somalia President Shares his TEDxMogadishu Idea: Nomad Diplomacy

Jubbaland compromise agreement presents challenges, opportunities - Sabahionline.com

The agreement between Jubbaland regional administration leaders and the Somali federal governmentlast week in Addis Ababa averted a political crisis in Somalia, but aspects of the compromise leave many challenges ahead.

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  Somali State Minister Farah Sheikh Abdulkadir (left) and Ahmed Mohamed Islam Madobe (right) exchange documents before Ethiopian Foreign Minister Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus and other officials on August 28th in Addis Ababa after signing a pact recognising Madobe as the leader of the Interim Jubba Administration. [Mulugeta Ayene/AFP]

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The two parties agreed August 28th to form the Interim Jubba Administration (IJA) comprising Gedo, Lower Jubba and Middle Jubba regions. The agreement also confirmed Ahmed Mohamed Islam Madobe as head of the IJA for a two-year transitional period.

The federal government will assume control of the Kismayo airport and seaport for six months, after which the government will appoint a management team in consultation with the interim administration.

Further details of the accord are to be finalised at a reconciliation meeting in Mogadishu, officials said, although no firm date has yet been set.

Among the differing opinions are some who welcome the agreement and see it as an opportunity to end conflict in the Jubba regions while at the same time creating the necessary space to implement the disputed federal system. Those who oppose the agreement say it was not inclusive.

The differing opinions were visible in two demonstrations held recently.

Hundreds of Baidoa residents took to the streets August 31st in a protest organised by clan elders and the Bay regional administration who said they were cutting off ties with the Somali government over the agreement. In Mogadishu, the Benadir regional administration organised a demonstration September 1st in support of the agreement.

Mohamed Ibrahim Abdi, a Somali political analyst at the Institute of Arab Research and Studies in Cairo, said the Jubbaland agreement was a big victory for the Somali government and the people of the Jubba regions because it would reduce tribal tensions and prevent further conflict.

"Finding a solution for all these matters is a big opportunity for the administration to advance governance," he told Sabahi by phone. On the other hand, he said, failing to find a solution to the political deadlock in the region could lead to the government's downfall.

"Jubbaland has become a political storm that has engulfed the entire country," Abdi said, adding that the agreement will give the federal government time to focus on resolving outstanding issues with Puntland and Somaliland.

Last month, the Puntland administration suspended ties with the Somali federal government accusing it of failing to uphold constitutional principles, citing the Jubbaland crisis as an example.

The Somali government has also been engaged in ongoing talks with the Somaliland regional administration to discuss the state of their union.

But the Jubbaland agreement could help end the differences between the Puntland administration and the federal government, according to Puntland Non-State Actors Association Chairman Nur Mohamed Nur.

An agreed upon solution to the Jubbaland issue could become a blueprint for the federal government to negotiate with other administrations, he said.

"This agreement will become an open channel for communication," Nur told Sabahi, adding that for the agreement to bear fruit, civil society organisations in the Jubba regions should play an active role in the reconciliation process "by bringing the clans closer together through their engagement of traditional elders, clerics and all the different sectors of the public".

Additional talks necessary

Mogadishu-based Heritage Institute for Policy Studies said the agreement was an important step towards ending the political stalemate, but encouraged the two parties "to draft an implementation roadmap with clear timelines to ensure progress is sustained and an independent body tasked with monitoring how both parties honour and implement the agreement".

Lawmaker Dahir Amin Jesow, who hails from Kismayo, said the government has reached an agreement with only one of the sides that were at odds over the control of Kismayo.

"The Kismayo conflict was not between the federal government and Ahmed Madobe," Jesow said. "It was between six men who each claimed to be the president of the three regions. Therefore the agreement was an infringement upon the other five who were absent from the talks."

Before coming to the table for political negotiations, parties responsible for civilian deaths in Kismayo should have been held accountable, Jesow said.

Jesow also said the agreement was not in accordance with the constitution as the IJA did not meet the requirements needed to form a federal state.

Lawmaker Abdi-barre Yusuf said Jubbaland leaders and the Somali government still have an opportunity to correct their course and comply with constitution through two upcoming reconciliation meetings.

"Everyone who hails from Jubba have to be brought together in the two meetings to come to terms while ensuring that the matters discussed in the reconciliation meetings are in accordance with the constitution," he said.

Puntland President Meets Ethiopia Prime Minister

Puntland State of Somalia

Somalia: Puntland President Meets Ethiopia Prime Minister

PRESS RELEASE
3 September 2013
Ethiopian Prime Minister H.E. Hailemariam Desalegn received in Addis Ababa on  Tuesday September 3 a Puntland Government delegation led by President of  Puntland State of Somalia H.E. Abdirahman Mohamed Mohamud (Farole) including  Puntland Health Minister H.E. Dr. Ali Abdullahi Warsame.

Discussions included advancing security and governance in Somalia, issues relating  to the Somali Federal Constitution, and security and economic relations between  Ethiopia and Puntland.

The Ethiopian Prime Minister underlined that Ethiopia and IGAD Member States  agree that abiding to the Federal Constitution is the basis for rebuilding and  reconciliation in Somalia, including the formation of the remaining Federated States.

The Puntland President commended Ethiopia’s role in facilating the August 27  agreement signed in Addis Ababa between the Federal Government of Somalia and the Jubaland administration. President Farole also discussed strengthening relations  in security and economic cooperation to develop the sub-region.

The Puntland delegation led by President Farole arrived in Addis Ababa on  September 2 and Ethiopian Foreign Minister H.E. Dr. Tedros Adhanom hosted a  working dinner for the Puntland delegation Monday night.

Ethiopia and Kenya help dismember Somalia, Jutland on the road to independence

A new deal has recognised Jubaland, a strip of land in southern Somalia and bordering on Kenya and Ethiopia, as yet another quasi-independent entity in the region.

BY MARTIN PLAUT PUBLISHED 03 SEPTEMBER 2013 10:42

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Ahmed Mohamed Islam during a meeting in Kismaayo earlier this year. Photo: Getty

After nine days of late night meetings and plenty of arm-twisting, the fragile government of Somalia was finally forced to accept that a further slice of its territory had slipped beyond its control. The deal, signed in Addis Ababa, recognised Jubaland as yet another quasi-independent entity. This strip of land in southern Somalia and bordering on Kenya and Ethiopia, it is the illegitimate heir of both of these countries.

Jubaland is of critical importance to the whole of southern Somalia. Trade through the port and airport of Kismaayo is a lifeline for the region. In theory Jubaland will be the ‘Interim Juba Administration’ and last for just two years, while Somalia re-forms itself into a Federation. In reality it is now outside Mogadishu’s control – just like those other fragments of Somalia, including Puntland, Galmadug and the self-declared independent state of Somaliland.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who was only sworn in as Somali president a year ago, was unable to resist the intense pressure of his neighbours and agreed to the deal. The entire sorry saga was witnessed by Nicholas Kay, the UN’s Special Representative in Somalia; welcomed by Catherine Ashton for the European Union and supported by the African Union. Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, the South African chair of African Union described the agreement as “historic”, declaring that it was “a further illustration of the capacity of the Somalis to triumph over their differences.” 

It is hard to see what there was to welcome. 

The deal officially recognises Ahmed Mohamed Islam (known, like all Somalis by a nickname - ‘Madobe’) as the ‘leader’ of Jubaland. Yet only a month earlier Sheikh Madobe was described in a major UN report as a “spoiler” and one of the chief threats to Somali stability.

The Sheikh was said to be “subverting the efforts of the Federal Government leadership and its partners to extend the reach of Government authority and stabilise the country, particularly in Kismaayo.”

What the Baroness Ashton and her colleagues have done is anoint a man who has been roundly denounced by the Monitoring Group, established by the UN Security Council. Its July report pointed out that the Sheikh had been a member of the short-lived Union of Islamic Courts, which was ousted by Ethiopia during its 2006 invasion of Somalia. What happened next is interesting. As the report puts it: “Madobe’s forces returned to Kismayo in August 2008, when Al-Shabaab and Hizbul Islam recaptured the city following the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Somalia.” At this time the Sheikh Madobe was a key player in the al-Qaeda linked network.  But, as is ever the case in Somalia, clan and inter-clan rivalry came into play and the Sheikh fell out with his former allies. He threw in his lot with the African peacekeepers and the Federal Government.  But Sheikh Madobe did not cut his ties with al-Sabaab altogether and the UN report accuses him of continuing the export of charcoal from territory controlled by the Islamists – a trade long since outlawed by the UN because of its catastrophic impact on the Somali environment.

Under the new arrangement the Sheikh retains the port and the airport, although he is required to hand control to the Federal Government within six months. Since this would cut his income and hence his power, there seems little chance of the handover ever taking place.

The outcome has been a triumph for Somalia’s neighbours, even though Kenya and Ethiopia will continue to vie for influence in this critical part of the country.

The Kenyan foreign ministry has long seen the establishment of a buffer state along its northern border as vital to its security interests. Thanks to Wikileaks, we know that Kenya’s Foreign Minister, Moses Wetangula, practically begged the United States for its support when he saw Johnnie Carsons, President Obama’s most senior US Africa official, in January 2010.  The Kenyans were requesting backing for an invasion of Somalia to create Jubaland, but the Americans were far from keen.

As the confidential embassy telex puts it: “Carson tactfully, but categorically refused the Kenyan delegation’s attempts to enlist US Government support for their effort.” It was, said the telex, the third time Wetangula had made the appeal, but Carsons resisted, pointing out – rightly – that “the initiative could backfire.” Critically, Carsons warned that: “if successful, a Lower Juba entity could emerge as a rival to the TFG” (Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government). This is exactly what has now come about.

Brushing these concerns aside, Kenya sent its troops into Somalia in October 2011. As predicted, they found it very heavy going and it was to take almost a year before al-Shabaab were driven from Kismaayo.

For the Ethiopians, the establishment of Jubaland is a further fragmentation of Somalia, its sworn enemy since the Somalis invaded their country in 1977. It was an attack that is imprinted on Ethiopian memories, fuelling a determination to see the end of a powerful, centralised Somali state.

As if the situation was not complicated enough, newly created Jubaland could be sitting on reserves of oil. Several fields have been detected in the waters along the Kenya-Somali border, but, like many African frontiers, the location of the border is a matter of dispute.  The Somali government refuses to recognise oil licenses granted to multinational companies by Kenya, and has persuaded several oil-majors, including Total and the Norwegian state owned Statoil, to withdraw their claims. But, said the UN in July, the Italian firm, ENI, was still pressing ahead with its claims.

As Jonnie Carsons remarked in 2010, Jubaland “raises more questions than it answers.”