Wednesday, December 12, 2012

The Horn of Africa: rebuilding or in meltdown? | beyondbrics

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There could hardly be a more poignant or devastating reminder of divisive instability that has spread throughout the Horn of Africa.
On Monday, I moderated a discussion panel on how arts and literature can help rebuild society in the Horn of Africa. But I shouldn’t have been there at all.
Yusuf Hassan, the intended moderator and a Kenyan MP of Somali descent, was absent because of a stark symbol, not of society rebuilding itself, but of society in meltdown: a bomb attack.
The parliamentarian was injured by shrapnel from an explosion in his Kamukunji constituency in Eastleigh, a largely Somali community in Nairobi, on Friday evening. A boy who had come up to greet him was killed instantly, among five who died. It was the second blast in three days.
Kenya’s only Nairobi MP of Somali descent, who has regularly spoken out against the al-Shabaab jihadis who control some of central Somalia, Hassan says he doesn’t know if he was the intended target of the attack.
“In the case of Eastleigh we had no idea maybe a year ago we’d be affected by some of the problems that affect people from the Horn of Africa. Many of these people have fled war, they came here for sanctuary,” he said from his hospital bed. Both his legs are fractured; his right ankle is almost severed.
“It appears the attempt is to create discord and conflict. These communities [in Eastleigh] have lived side by side for over a century,” he said of relations between Somalis and non-Somalis who commute into the city each day for work.
Somalis have become accustomed to fatal tumult in more than 20 years of instability and war. A recent return to fragments of stability as the threat of al-Shabaab ebbs may not be enough.

Ayan Mahamoud
“We have a state but we don’t have a nation,” said Ayan Mahamoud, managing director of KAYD Somali Arts and Culture, which helps put on the Hargeisa International Book Fair. She was among the panelists co-hosted by Kwani Trust, a Kenyan literary network, and the Nairobi forum, a research body managed by the Rift Valley Institute, discussing how arts and literature can help in societal reconstruction.

Hadraawi, speaking from the audience
“Poets are more important than politicians in Somalia,” she said, pointing to audience member and poet Hadraawi, famed as the Somali Shakespeare and hailed for helping to bring down the dictatorship of Siad Barre in 1991. He was imprisoned for his popular criticism for five years in the mid-1970s and later joined the opposition in exile.
Hassan, whose father was a social historian, said poetry had always had great power throughout the Horn and played a big role both in war and reconciliation. “Every poem has a role in society for peace and reconciliation after a devastating war – usually used to send a signal of peace to the other side,” he said.
The discussion is part of a week-long event, Conversations with Writers from the Horn, part of the biennial Kwani? Litfest. While Kenya’s art scene thrives, participants from other countries experience first-hand the depravities, indignities and fear of being threatened for their work.
Eighteen media figures have been killed in Somalia this year, many of whom spoke out against al-Shabaab. Panellist Meaza Worku confines her work in Ethiopia to the realm of social ills – comic books to combat HIV, radio plays to combat sexism – but dares not drift into politics. Many more write from exile.

Ayan Mahamoud, Joseph Eluzai and Katrina Manson.
Joseph Eluzai, South Sudanese short story writer and panellist, heard the shot that last week killed fellow writer, critic and columnist Isaiah Abraham outside his Juba home. Abraham, pen name for Diing Chan Awuol, regularly criticised government corruption in his writings.
Little more than a year after words from one of Eluzai’s poems were incorporated into the world’s newest national anthem, when South Sudan arrived on the map in July 2011, he is disheartened by the direction of his country’s independence project.
“The space for expression is being narrowed down to pro-government,” says Eluzai.
Photos by Paul Munene/Kwani

Sunday, December 9, 2012

AMISOM Somali troops capture Islamist stronghold Jowhar

African Union, Somali troops capture Islamist stronghold
NAIROBI — African Union troops and Somali forces seized the formerly Islamist-held town of Jowhar Sunday, wresting control of one of the largest remaining towns held by the Al-Qaeda linked Shebab, officials said.
"We took control this morning and are now establishing security in Jowhar," Colonel Ali Houmed, a spokesman for the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), told AFP.
"AMISOM troops alongside Somali National Forces entered the town, there was little fighting as the Shebab largely fled ahead of us."
The loss of Jowhar is a significant blow to the Shebab, who have lost a string of towns in recent months to the 17,000-strong AMISOM force, as well as to Ethiopian troops who invaded Somalia last year from the west.
Shebab spokesman Abdiaziz Abu Musab confirmed to AFP that the extremist forces had pulled out of the town, which lies some 90 kilometres (55 miles) north on a key road from the capital Mogadishu.
"We have withdrawn our troops from Jowhar for strategic reasons," Abu Musab said, adding that the forces had pulled out without suffering any casualties and remained "close by" to the town.
"We will hunt the invaders from inside and outside Jowhar," he added.
Jowhar, the regional capital of Middle Shabelle region, had been under the Islamists' control since 2009, after Ethiopian troops in a US-backed invasion pulled out in the face of a bloody insurgency.
Its capture brings a step closer the prospect of AU troops pushing northwards being able to link up with Ethiopian soldiers ahead in the Hiraan region.
Shebab fighters are on the back foot, with AU troops also battling to open up the road northwest from Mogadishu to link the capital with Baidoa, which is held by Ethiopian soldiers.
The fighters have largely retreated ahead of each assault, with some reportedly relocating to the Galgala region of the northern Golis mountains in Somalia's semi-autonomous Puntland region.
The Golis mountains, straddling the porous border between the autonomous state of Puntland and self-declared independent Somaliland, are honeycombed with caves and difficult to access.
The northern mountains have been under longtime control of warlord, arms dealer and Shebab ally Mohamed Said Atom, on UN Security Council sanctions for "kidnapping, piracy and terrorism."
Kenyan troops -- who invaded Somalia a year ago before later integrating into AMISOM -- have also pushed up from the south, and seized the Shebab bastion and major port of Kismayo in September.
But the Shebab remain a potent threat, still controlling rural areas as well as carrying out guerrilla attacks -- including suicide bombings -- in areas apparently under government control.
The Shebab, who abandoned fixed positions in the war-torn capital Mogadishu last year, have also carried out a series of guerrilla attacks there.
The hardline insurgents still control the small port town of Barawe, lying some 180 kilometres south from the capital.
Somalia has been in political chaos and deprived of an effective central government since the fall of President Siad Barre in 1991.
However, a new administration took office in September, ending eight years of transitional rule by a corruption-riddled government.
Over a million Somalis are displaced inside the country while over a million are refugees in neighbouring nations, according to UN figures.
The United Nations this month appealed for $1.3 billion to support 3.8 million people -- about half the population of the war-torn country -- it said are in need.
In 2011, famine in the country caused by extreme drought exacerbated by conflict caused the deaths of tens of thousands of people and affected more than four million people, according to the UN.

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Thursday, December 6, 2012

Ethiopian forces will stay in Somalia


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By Solomon Bekele   
Tuesday, 04 December 2012 09:28
The African Union Peace Keeping Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and the Ethiopian Defence Forces will stay in Somalia for an unspecified period.
“The Ethiopian Defence Force trains our security officers. The Somali Armed Forces are fighting side by side with AMISOM and the Ethiopian Defence Forces in the ongoing clash against the Al Shabab who are now largely on the run,” the President of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, said during a press conference at the national palace on Wednesday, November 28, 2012.
The largest gang that continues to wreak havoc in Somalia, Al Shabab, was chased out of the port town of Kismayu, in recent mop-up operations. “Our challenge now is how to implement a new legal system as opposed to the previous highly centralized government. Somalia has adopted a federal system based on the federal constitution. We don’t want to repeat the mistakes of the past, so we are now working to empower the local people to administer themselves as per the federal constitution,” the President said. The history of Somalia statehood, after independence, informs us that there has always been a highly centralized Government.
When he was asked about the timetable for the departure of the African forces, the President didn’t openly set the date. “When the right time comes, they will depart,” he replied.
“The Ethiopian Defence Force is in Somalia to support the peace process. We are waiting for AMISOM to replace us. When we are replaced, we will pull our forces back immediately. But until we get that assurance we will remain there. We have to be sure that Al Shabab will never come back to that place again,” Ethiopian Prime Minister Haile Mariam Desalegn said.
Asked about the situation Al Shabab is in, the President of Somalia replied that they are being defeated on the battlefield, one by one. “What we have learned from the past is that, when they faced this kind of heavy defeat, they melt away hiding within the Somali society and take time to reorganize themselves. This time, we have to carefully organize ourselves and be alert to respond before they get reorganized,” Mohamud said.
There was a reconciliation conference that took place in Addis Ababa in 1993. This process is still going on with the support of the Ethiopian government and the United Nations up to now. “We are trying to incorporate all concerned groups who wish to work together and accept the constitution and the new federal system.  Negotiations will continue until we achieve that,” he said.
The President added,  “In our joint ministerial meeting this morning we have discussed, apart from security and peace building, there is a window of opportunity for Somalia to form a stable country with the support of Ethiopia. The parliament is in place, a new president has been elected and an effective cabinet is in place. Ethiopia will assist us a lot in this administration building process.  Plus, we want to take heed of the big lesson learned from the Ethiopian federal system, which has been working effectively for the last 20 years or so.” 
PM Hailemariam on his part said that the Ethiopian government is ready to help the government of Somalia, particularly in training Somali officers, who are the backbone of peace and security and for the stability of Somalia.

Sunday, November 18, 2012

Ethiopia Prepares Massive Deployment of Troops to Somalia

hiopia Prepares Massive Deployment of Troops to Somalia

Postby oxymoron » Fri Nov 16, 2012 11:29 pm
Image


Sources in Addis Ababa have told Dissident Nation that Ethiopian troops are expected to fill the ranks of AMISOM after the anticipated withdrawal of Ugandan forces.

Uganda is pulling back from Somalia after disputes over a controversial UN report accusing their peacekeepers in the Democratic Republic of the Congo of human rights violations and theft of rare minerals.

Kenyan and Ethiopian leaders have expressed their willingness to replace the Ugandan peacekeepers in Somalia, who number about 10,000 personnel.

With Kenya already being occupied with counter-terrorism operations in the Lower Jubba province, Ethiopia is expected to take over Uganda’s security role in Mogadishu and Lower Shabelle. Remaining vacancies will be filled by Kenyan personnel at a later phase.

The Ugandan withdrawal is being kept by regional and African Union authorities, and will be planned in phases over a period of time. Ethiopia’s first contingent to Somalia is already prepared to take over, and consists of roughly 3,000 soldiers and large vehicles.

Funding for Ethiopia’s deployment will come from the United States.

Thursday, November 8, 2012

The Expensive, Diminishing Threat of Somali Piracy | Stratfor

By Ben West
Piracy off the coast of Somalia has dropped off dramatically in 2012. Successful ship hijackings have decreased from 31 in 2011 (and 49 in 2010) to only four so far in 2012. Attacks against ships have also decreased, falling from 199 reported attacks in the first nine months of 2011 to 70 attacks over the same span in 2012 -- a 65 percent drop. However, diminished activity does not necessarily mean a decrease in the cost of sailing around the Horn of Africa. Somali pirates occupy a unique position, which is right along highly strategic global shipping lanes yet outside the reach of any national power. For international actors, it is politically and militarily easier to try to contain the Somali piracy threat than to eliminate it. But containment comes at a high cost.

Controlling Territory

Many factors have contributed to the decrease in pirate hijackings in 2012. One factor is that shipping companies have begun equipping their ships with more countermeasures, namely armed guards. For several years, commercial ships sailing in the Indian Ocean have used other countermeasures, such as fences, water cannons and adjusted tactics like disabling the ship. But the widespread deployment of armed guards beginning in 2011 (guards had been used sparingly as far back as 2008) has a very close correlation to the recent decrease in hijackings. In late 2009, only about 10-20 percent of commercial ships sailing through waters where Somali pirates operate carried guards; today, some estimates put the percentage as high as 70 percent. To date, pirates have never successfully hijacked a ship that had armed guards. But it should be noted that, even though the use of armed guards appears to be the most effective countermeasure against piracy, there are other factors at work.
For instance, government officials also attribute the drop-off in attacks and hijackings to better coordination between foreign naval patrols, which have made the waters off the Somali coast a less permissive environment for pirate operations. With several years of practice, sailors from international missions such as the U.S.-backed Combined Task Force 151 and the EU-backed Atalanta mission as well as from the unilateral missions of China, Russia, Iran and others have had time to study pirate activity and become more efficient at stopping attacks.
Several dozen foreign naval ships are deployed to secure the waters for commercial shipping at any given time. Their focus is escorting ships through the Gulf of Aden, but the area of pirate activity is much larger than that, reaching across the Arabian Sea to India and Madagascar. Effectively patrolling such a large area requires intelligence and the development of a counterpiracy doctrine that includes going after the larger pirate vessels, called mother ships, that extend pirates' range and allow them to operate in rougher seas during the monsoon.
Taken together, the increased use of armed guards aboard commercial ships and the growing effectiveness of foreign naval patrols have contributed to undermining the pirates' control over the seas. Three years ago pirates were largely uncontested, but now they face a more coordinated defense. They hijacked commercial ships because they were relatively soft targets -- which could be taken by four people with AK-47s, a fishing boat and a ladder -- making the millions of dollars in profit from a ransom payment very attractive. The armed guards and naval patrols have not eliminated piracy, but they have increased the costs of attacking and seizing a commercial ship. Because pirates are motivated more by profit than by any ideology, a decrease in profitability will deter them from engaging in the practice.
Still, whatever the status of the sea, the coastal towns of Somalia, such as Hobyo and Haradheere, are still out of the control of any national or international force. The Puntland Maritime Police Force, which began operations in early 2012 with the help of Arab funding, made some progress in denying pirates sanctuary on land, but political contention prevents it from controlling the territory outright, making pirate activity still a very attractive economic model in central Somalia.
When piracy flared in the Strait of Malacca in the early 2000s, Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia were able to pursue the pirates on land and deny them sanctuary because they had the security forces and territorial integrity to do so. This is also true currently on the western coast of Africa in the Gulf of Guinea, where pirates occasionally hijack ships even though they have no ports in which to anchor the vessels. Since the West African governments have control -- however tenuous -- over their own sovereign territory, they still have the means to track down hijacked ships and keep pirates from creating sanctuaries. Somalia, on the other hand, has struggled for decades to control its territory. Over the past few years, it hasn't even been able to fully control Mogadishu, its capital, against the Islamist threat from al Shabaab. The new Somali federal government still lacks the capability to control pirate towns such as Hobyo and Haradheere, and its officials do not appear to want a strong Puntland doing it for them. 
By wresting maritime control from Somali pirates, commercial shipping companies and foreign navies have reduced the number of attacks but have not eliminated the threat. Several Western forces, including those of France, the United Kingdom and the United States, have gone on land a few times to pursue pirates, but generally, foreign militaries have avoided Somalia. Whereas the countries bordering the Strait of Malacca or Gulf of Guinea are able to go on the offensive to root out piracy, the rest of the world, unable to rely on Somalia, is going on the defensive.
In essence, the commercial shippers and naval forces have adopted a siege strategy -- they hope to starve the pirates of resources, forcing them to give up. Somali pirates held about 20 ships at any given time in 2010; they currently hold 11. As the pirates hijack fewer ships, and as armed guards make piracy more dangerous, the entire enterprise is looking less lucrative and appealing.

The Bottom Line

Even though the Somali pirates have not been as successful in 2012 as they were in recent years, their existence is still making it more expensive to sail around the Horn of Africa. The problem with the siege strategy is that as soon as shipping companies or foreign naval forces let up on the pirates, they will go back to hijacking ships.
The cost of prevention right now is high. It is impossible to know exactly how many ships are vulnerable to Somali pirate attacks each year, but we know that about 33,000 commercial ships pass through the Gulf of Aden yearly. Estimates of how many of those ships carry armed guards range from 40 to 70 percent. That means that about 13,000-23,000 ships are paying for armed guards to accompany them through the vulnerable areas, a roughly 10-day trip, at a cost of approximately $60,000 each time. Based on those figures, the total annual cost for shipping companies merely to deploy armed guards on their ships through the Gulf of Aden is between about $800 million and $1.4 billion. The total cost of piracy to the world in 2011, according to the One Earth Future Foundation's estimates, was between $6.6 billion and $6.9 billion. This estimate included $160 million for ransom payments; other preventative measures, such as rerouting ships or using more fuel to maintain higher speeds, made up the rest of the costs.
In other words, the cost of preventing piracy off the coast of Somalia is substantially higher than the costs piracy inflicts. Nevertheless, shipping companies are willing to pay a premium to prevent disruptions in their operations. They would prefer to pay a small amount for protection on each trip -- even though it adds up -- if it means averting a hijacking and multimillion-dollar ransom.

Somalia's Future

The key component of the siege strategy is that it weakens the pirates' control over their land-based sanctuaries. Their power is connected to their revenue, so the decrease in revenue will decrease their power. The shipping companies and foreign navies hope that some other, less disruptive enterprises will eventually take root along Somalia's pirate-heavy coast.
In the midst of forming its first permanent government since 1991, Somalia is currently incapable of addressing its lack of control over the central Somali coast. Instead, it is focusing on securing the population bases of Mogadishu, Kismayo and other small towns in south-central Somalia from al Shabaab. This will occupy the government for at least the next year. Even after that, Mogadishu has little incentive to try to tighten its control over central coastal pirate towns. The government has much more to lose if it fails in southern Somalia because it redirected scarce government resources to take on piracy. The pirate-held areas are economically depressed and are politically less important. That's why they started engaging in piracy in the first place.
The only force that has significantly challenged the pirates on land is the Puntland Maritime Police Force. Located in northeast Somalia, Puntland is much more stable than the south and is virtually independent. The Puntland Maritime Police Force had success in capturing pirates, destroying their staging bases along the beach, cutting off their supply routes and even, supposedly, attempting to seize hijacked vessels from the pirates. However, the police force suffered from funding cuts and political opposition and appears to no longer be active against the pirates. Although Mogadishu is unable to control much of its territory, the new government doesn't want regional governments accumulating too much strength. In the end, a strong Puntland may be more of a risk to Mogadishu than pirates. 
Without a sustained, land-based intervention, Somali piracy will continue -- even if it is at a lower rate -- at least until some other criminal enterprise takes its place. But even at its lower rate, as long as Somali pirates are operating, they will be an expensive burden for the world's shipping industry.



Read more: The Expensive, Diminishing Threat of Somali Piracy | Stratfor 

Monday, November 5, 2012

Somalia: first female as a foreign minister first female as a foreign minister Mrs. Fowsia Yussuf H. Aden as the country’s first female foreign minister and deputy prime minister.

Somalia: first female as a foreign minister Mrs. Fowsia Yussuf H. Aden as the country’s first female foreign minister and deputy prime minister.



Somalia: first female as a foreign minister

Published On: Sunday, November, 04 2012 - 21:57:50 This post has been viewed 182 times

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The Prime Minister named Mrs. Fowsia Yussuf H. Aden as the country’s first female foreign minister and deputy prime minister.
Mogadishu (Sunatimes) Somalia’s new prime minister Abdi Farah Shirdon Saaid on Sunday named his cabinet of 10 ministers, a government statement said.

Saaid named a smaller government mainly from the Somali Diaspora.

The new government will face the daunting task of solving the war-ravaged country’s security, political, social and economic problems.

Only three ministers from the previous government of Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo are included in the new line-up, while the rest are new faces.

Abdihakim Mohamoud Haji Fiqi has been appointed minister of defense, a post that he previously held in the Farmajo government.

Abdullahi Abyan Nur has also been appointed to the same post he held in the the Farmajo government as the minister of Justice and Religious affairs, while Mrs. Maryan Kassim has been appointed as the minister for social development services.

The Prime Minister named Mrs. Fowsia Yussuf H. Aden as the country’s first female foreign minister and deputy prime minister.

List of Ministries



  1. Deputy PM & Foreign Minister, Mrs. Fowsia Yussuf H. Aden
  2. Minister of Justice, Religious Affairs and Endowment, Abdullahi Abyan Nur
  3. Minister of Defense, Abdihakim Mohamoud Haji Fiqi
  4. Minister of Interior and National Security, Abdikareen Hussein Guled
  5. Minister of Finance and Planning, Mohamoud Hassan Suleiman
  6. Minister of Information and Telecommunication, Abdullahi Ilmoge Hersi
  7. Minister of National Resources, Abdirizak Omar Mohamed
  8. Minister of Public Works, Muhyaddin Mohamed Kalmoi
  9. Minister for Social Development Services, Mrs. Maryan Kassim
  10. Minister of Tradesand Industrialization, Mohamud Ahmed Hassan


  


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